The Best Stock Market Advice I Know: Get Ahead of the Business Cycle

The timing isn’t quite right yet, but, in the not-too-distant future, there should be a reacceleration of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. If you’ve been a speculator in these stocks, you’ll know that it’s been tough going. The entire group has been suffering from a lack of investor confidence and a lot of this sentiment is warranted. There remain, however, many very good companies out there whose stock prices have fallen along with the group and that are now excellent values in my view. I think we’re very close to achieving extreme pricing (on the downside) with many of these stocks and speculators should be putting a number of these stocks on their radar screens.

If you watch the stock market long enough, you’ll know that certain sectors experience waves of enthusiasm from investors. It’s like the latest trend in the fashion industry, only the business cycle in stocks changes extremely fast. One year, the darling of the market is solar energy stocks. The next year, silver stocks are soaring. The whole system in my view is about perpetual rolling interest from investors on the Street and getting ahead of these trends is the single most important contributor to making big money in the stock market. It’s not even about owning the right individual stocks at the right time; it’s about owning the right sector. Share prices move in groups and Wall Street takes no prisoners. The stock market isn’t a perfect system and valuations are always relative, but with so many participants on the long and short sides of the marketplace, prices are never true for long.

Stock picking has always been and always will be a difficult endeavor to get right on a consistent basis. Even in a bull market, it’s difficult to make money as a speculator, because sentiment changes so quickly and so do stock prices. One unfulfilled expectation and a stock’s price can be cut in half—in a matter of minutes! If stock picking were easy, there would be a lot more retired stock traders living on your street. Even Wall Street pros don’t last in the game for very long. Most investment banks make a lot more money selling you advice than trading stocks for themselves.

The one thing I’ve learned over the years is never to fight the market. The action is the action. It might not be rational; it might not even be fair. But the stock market is a system that is based on fear and greed, and emotions have more to do with prices than anything else. A big investor like Warren Buffett worries almost solely about valuation, because he is buying an entire company’s cash flow, not just a share. For equity investors (speculators more appropriately), a stock’s valuation is more about perception than anything. Understanding the market’s prevailing psychology usually wins out over the most stringent of analyses.

Right now, there are several sectors in the equity universe that are not participating in the current rally. If you’re a buy-low/sell-high kind of speculator, now is the time to be looking seriously. Here’s what my favorite stock picker likes to do (Jim Rogers); he waits for securities to achieve price extremes, then he makes his bets.
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Mitchell is a Senior Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in small-cap stocks. He’s the editor of a variety of popular Lombardi Financial newsletters, such as Penny Stock Reporter, Micro-Cap Stocks, and Monster Profits.

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More Warren Buffett Articles

Warren Buffett and Bill Gates on Their Relationship and Market Opportunities

Warren Buffett and Bill Gates interview at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, May 4, 2009. Warren Buffett is the greatest investor of all time. His decisions about buying shares and companies have beaten the stock market year after year and made him the richest person in the world – thought to be worth 37 billion dollars. Yet Buffett lives modestly in his native Omaha, in America’s mid-West, and runs his 150 billion dollar business with a staff of just twenty. Evan Davis meets him to find out about his unique investment strategy and his eccentric lifestyle. He talks to Buffett’s family, friends and colleagues about the man they call the Sage of Omaha, and Buffett’s friend Bill Gates praises his philosophy of life. As the greed of the super-wealthy is widely criticised in the current financial crisis, Davis asks whether Warren Buffett is the acceptable face of the filthy rich

Wall Street Briefing Launches Stock Market Oriented Site

(PRWEB) December 9, 2004

Wall Street Briefing LLC today announced that it has launched the web site The site will provide a broad array of investment news and stock profiles of interest to those following the stock market.

On its first day live, featured news on the battle for Sears (NYSE:S) and explained how Kmart Holdings (NYSE:KMRT) is not the only potential suitor for Sears, as Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) has been profitably making plays in the real estate/retail arena for decades.Will this end up being the battle of Edward Lampert versus Steven Roth.

In its Corporate Profile section, featured Addison-Davis (OTCBB:ADDI) a development company specializing in Â?Point of CareÂ? diagnostic testing for such diseases as Rubella, Herpes, Rotavirus, Infectious Mononucleosis, Strep Group A, Myoglobin, Cardiac Troponin 1, HIV 1 and HIV 2.

In its Investment Bulletin section, featured news from V-Net Beverage, Inc. (Pink Sheet:VNET) on the launch of their new allimax(r) nutraceutical bottled water.

Finally, took a close look at a recent photo of billionaire Berkshire Hathway investor Warren Buffett and asked the all important question, Â?Did Warren Buffett undergo botox treatment?Â?

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Valuation Matters Part 1 The Stock Market is WRONG FRAT VidEx

Valuation Matters; Therefore, The Stock Market is Wrong! February 27th, 2009, By ChuckC of Part 1 of 2 focuses on stock market valuation. Warren Buffett once lamented that For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values. The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because its going up. And Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame said in his New York Times bestseller One Up on Wall Street Just because you buy a stock and it goes up does not mean you are right. Just because you buy a stock and it goes down does not mean you are wrong. Both of these renowned gurus are acknowledging the undeniable fact that the stock market can often grossly over or under value a company. During the irrational exuberant period of the late 1990s the market was overpricing stocks to the extreme. Today, the stock market is undervaluing stocks to an opposite extreme. As overvaluation was the precursor to horrible long-term results, todays mirror image is the beginning of a great long-term opportunity. Valuation and earnings growth are the true determents of future return. Watch our Frat™ Videx™ for the compelling and undeniable evidence! Ultimately the owners of any company, public or private, will derive their economic reward from the cash flow the underlying business generates or earns. Therefore, determining risk and reward is truly a straightforward and simple exercise. You merely forecast the income you expect and measure it against